What will the global and regional impacts of El Niño 2026–2027 be?

NOAA CPC Alert Status: El Niño Advisory ↗

Based on NOAA’s 10 September 2026 update · next update 8 October 2026

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (the US climate forecasting office) reports a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27. Warmer Pacific water reorders rainfall worldwide, and with it, harvests, fisheries and food security.

This event has roughly a three-in-four chance of becoming the strongest El Niño on record, surpassing 2015–16 and 1997–98.⁽¹⁾ It also lands on an already warmer planet: 2027 will probably set a new global temperature record, temporarily exceeding +1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.⁽¹³⁾ With the peak expected around November 2026,⁽⁵⁾ the knock-on effects for operations, suppliers and markets are likely to be felt over the coming months.

Chance of a very strong event, fall–winter 2026–27⁽¹⁾>90%

A 75% chance the event in Oct–Dec 2026 exceeds any El Niño since 1950*

NeutralModerateExtreme

*+2.5 °C or more, 3-month RONI, NOAA’s El Niño strength index

See full probability table here

Key takeaways

01
A strong-to-record El Niño is confirmed and developing
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in force, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event through Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and roughly a three-in-four chance it becomes the strongest El Niño on record, surpassing 2015–16 and 1997–98.⁽¹⁾⁽²⁾⁽¹¹⁾
02
WMO (the UN weather and climate agency) expects intensification into a strong event
The Global Seasonal Climate Update issued 31 July 2026 confirms El Niño is intensifying into a strong event for Aug–Oct 2026, with seasonal sea-surface temperature anomalies forecast near +2.9 °C and a peak around November 2026.⁽⁵⁾⁽⁶⁾
03
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (a warm/cool pattern in the Indian Ocean) is forecast alongside it
WMO and ICPAC (the East African regional climate centre) expect a positive Indian Ocean Dipole to develop alongside El Niño, which would favour wetter conditions across parts of East Africa and drier conditions over Indonesia and southern and eastern Australia; BoM reported the IOD still neutral in mid-September.⁽⁵⁾⁽²⁸⁾⁽⁶²⁾
04
2027 is likely to be the warmest year on record
The UK Met Office and multiple modelling centres warn that 2027 will probably set a new global temperature record, temporarily exceeding +1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels; WMO puts roughly 86% odds that at least one year in 2026–2030 beats the current 2024 record.⁽¹³⁾⁽¹²⁾⁽¹¹⁾
05
Confidence is high in the tropics, low for Europe
ENSO (the El Niño/La Niña ocean cycle) is one of the most predictable climate signals for the tropics and the Pacific rim. Confidence is markedly lower for Europe, where the teleconnection (a distant, linked climate response) is weaker, non-stationary and easily overridden by the North Atlantic Oscillation and the state of the polar vortex, a caveat that applies throughout this page.⁽⁴³⁾⁽⁴⁵⁾

All references ↓

Timeline

Mar–May 2026

Onset

The equatorial Pacific moves from ENSO-neutral to weak El Niño; the Niño 3.4 index rises from 0.0 °C in March to 0.9 °C in May.

Jun–Jul 2026

Strengthening

CPC keeps an El Niño Advisory in force, stating El Niño continues and will strengthen.

Now

Aug–Oct 2026

Strong

WMO expects a strong El Niño to dominate global climate patterns, with above-normal temperatures across much of the world.

Oct 2026–Feb 2027

Peak & Global Impact

CPC gives a 75% chance of a historic event exceeding any El Niño since 1950 (+2.5 °C or more, 3-month RONI) during October–December 2026.

Regional impacts

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References

Numbered sources cited on this page, listed in order.